McCain: What Went Wrong?

McCain is suffering from a perfect storm. After a string of so-so Democratic candidates (Gore, Kerry) and a generally positive operating environment for the GOP the wheels fell off starting around 2005.

In 2006 the Republicans were thrown out as the party of corruption and incompetent management of the war in Iraq.

In 2007 they finally get some "good" news in Iraq, but the housing market falls apart.

From late 2007 through early 2008 the Democrats have TWO solid candidates that take it to the wire-- all the while building infrastructure in ALL the states (not just the early primary states like the Republicans) as well as MANY newly registered partisans. The other result is that most of the negatives of Obama are aired early and become "old news" by the time of the general elections. Further more due to the long campaign, Obama is able to refine his message and raise large sums before the conventions.

At the GOP convention McCain picks someone that helps with his base. But as the economy starts to teeter, people start to question the choice of someone with little experience and questionable judgment. In a healthier economic environment this might have been a good political pick, but as the economy falters, people start to worry about her being one 72-year-old heart beat from the presidency.

The only play left in the playbook is the distasteful but previously successful (2000 GOP primary/2004 Kerry) full-negative press. The problem is that the full negative press energizes the bases of both parties and probably at best splits the center. This works well when your base is larger, more organized, and/or more enthusiastic but in this cycle all three lean toward Obama.

When McCain figures this out, I hope he runs the rest of his campaign as the decent person he was previously thought to be. He was previously one of the better Republican senators and if he can end on a high-note I think there is some hope for reconciliation and working together for the people.